The early stages of the mens draw don’t look particularly tempting although things should get very interesting in the second week.  Rafael Nadal has not been at his sensational best despite winning Madrid and reaching the final in Rome.  Novak Djokovic looks to be over his wrist injury and has a crucial win over Rafa on the clay.  The big question though is whether Novak can win over a best of five sets match and on Rafa’s patch.  With all this talk about Rafa-Novak, you can bet your bottom dollar we’ll see neither make the final! The likes of Roger Federer, Stanislas Wawrinka, David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori will all be eyeing up their chances in the French capital.  Let’s take a look at the all important draw…

Fantasy Games: I have set up two leagues for the TFF Dream Team and Official Roland Garros fantasy games.  Everyone is welcome to join! For the TFF DreamTeam game click here to pick a team and then enter the password 061a43bea70c737a8ad38c50692a9a7e to join the Moo’s Tennis Blog league.  For the RG game, click here, pick your players and then enter the group number which is 8291 and the group password which is MZFR7. For the full details on both games, I posted about them HERE.

QUARTER 1: R.Nadal (1) v D.Ferrer (5)

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal is the number one seed in Paris as he bids for his ninth Roland Garros title.  First up for Rafa is Robby Ginepri.  To be honest, I thought Ginepri had retired! He has made his way into the draw via a wildcard he earnt from the USTA.  In the second round, he would meet either Paul-Henri Mathieu or Dominic Thiem.  A potential Nadal-Thiem match on Philippe Chatrier would be fascinating.  Thiem, who defeated Stan Wawrinka in Madrid, continues to dazzle both on and off the court.  His Facebook posts are incredibly enlightening and he really has a huge future ahead of him.  Mathieu will be no pushover in the first round, but I do hope Thiem gets a shot at Rafa, who will be more vulnerable in the first couple of rounds.  A statistic that continues to make me laugh is that Nadal has won 84 out of 85 best of five set matches at Roland Garros.  Amazing.

David Ferrer is Nadal’s projected quarter-final opponent.  The world number five has competed better with the few players above him in the ranking, beating Nadal in Monte-Carlo and pushing Djokovic deep into a third set in Rome.  He will open his tournament, where he is defending finalist points, against Igor Sijsling.  Ferrer could meet Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round.  The Bulgarian player is getting closer and closer to cracking the top ten after an excellent 2014 season.  His first match could be a difficult one up against Ivo Karlovic, who reached the final in Dusseldorf.  Dimitrov has made significant strides this year, but if he were to meet Ferrer, the Spaniard would have the edge on clay and in a best of five set match.  Dimitrov’s fitness has been less of an issue this year.  He’s still relatively unproven at the Slams apart from that one run to the quarter-finals in Melbourne.

1st Round Predictions: Nadal d. Ginepri in 3 sets, Thiem d. Mathieu in 4 sets, Gabashvili d. Pospisil in 5 sets, Almagro d. Sock in 4 sets, Dimitrov d. Karlovic in 4 sets, Anderson d. Robert in 5 sets, Giraldo d. Seppi in 5 sets, Monaco d. Pouille in 3 sets and Ferrer d. Sijsling in 3 sets

Moo’s Quarter-Final Prediction: Nadal v Ferrer

QUARTER 2: S.Wawrinka (3) v A.Murray (7)

Andy Murray

Andy Murray‘s performances in Rome were some of his most encouraging on clay for many years.  He pushed Rafael Nadal desperately deep into a third set of their quarter-final match and should have really won the match.  In Paris, he has a really good draw.  First up for Murray is Andrey Golubev and first seed could be Philipp Kohlschreiber.  I think there are a number of seeds in trouble in this section including Kohlschreiber and two popular Frenchmen.  Gael Monfils hasn’t played since retiring hurt from his semi-final in Bucharest about a month ago and Richard Gasquet hasn’t played since Miami due to back problems.  Gasquet opens against Bernard Tomic in one of the very few intriguing first round matches.  Tomic won their only ever Grand Slam match at Wimbledon last year, but Reeshard is a far more capable player on clay.  It all depends on whether Gasquet is fit to play.

After winning Monte-Carlo, Stan Wawrinka‘s odds were slashed for Roland Garros.  Excitement for Stanley has since simmered after early exits in Madrid (Thiem, R2) and Rome (Haas, R3).  Wawrinka has one of the toughest first round draws as he will take on Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.  The Spaniard had a great run in the middle of the clay court season when he won Casablanca and then reached the quarter-finals in Monte-Carlo, producing a magnificent display to push Novak Djokovic to three sets.  Fabio Fognini is in Wawrinka’s eighth so they could meet in the last 16.  Fognini has been blowing hot and cold, mainly freezing during this clay court season.  He was terrible in Rome, but don’t be surprised if he suddenly awakens.

1st Round Predictions: Wawrinka .d Garcia-Lopez in 4 sets, Manarino d. Lu in 3 sets, Hanescu d. Monfils in 4 sets (or ret.), Struff d. Olivetti in 5 sets, Bellucci d. Becker in 4 sets, Berlocq d. Hewitt in 5 sets, Verdasco d. Llodra in 3 sets, Kohlschreiber d. Riba in 3 sets, Istomin d. Stakhovsky in 4 sets, Matosevic d. Brown in 5 sets and Murray d. Golubev in 3 sets

Moo’s Quarter-Final Prediction: Wawrinka v Murray

QUARTER 3: T.Berdych (6) v R.Federer (4)

Roger Federer

Roger Federer suffered a surprising loss to Jeremy Chardy in his first match in Rome, but it really wasn’t a worrying loss.  There were just a few points in it and if it hadn’t been for a stroke of brilliance from Chardy, he would have prevailed.  Federer will be delighted with his draw, which has avoided any real danger to the fourth round.  He will play Lukas Lacko in the first round.  Perhaps the first test will come in the last 16 from a section that features Mikhail Youzhny and Ernests Gulbis.  The latter has been posting some very solid results and has reached the final in Nice this week.  Youzhny will have a tough opener against Pablo Carreno-Busta.

Tomas Berdych opens up against a qualifier before a potential second round match against Somdev Devvarman or Aleksandr Nedovyesov.  He is projected to meet Roberto Bautista-Agut in the third round.  This could be a very dicey match indeed for Berdych who has lost twice to Bautista-Agut in his career including earlier this year in Miami.  Things will be different in a best of five set match although Bautista-Agut has been in great form this year, reaching the semi-finals in Madrid.  This quarter is particularly open with John Isner and Tommy Robredo present.  Neither are in form, but the calibre of players in this quarter is low so both will fancy their chances of making the last 16.

1st Round Predictions: Falla d. Paire in 3 sets, Montanes d. De Schepper in 3 sets, Kukushkin d. Mahut in 5 sets, Isner d. Herbert in 5 sets, Carreno-Busta d. Youzhny in 4 sets, Stepanek d. Arguello in 3 sets, Gulbis d. Kubot in 3 sets and Federer d. Lacko in 3 sets

Moo’s Quarter-Final Prediction: Berdych v Federer

QUARTER 4: M.Raonic (8) v N.Djokovic (2)

Novak Djokovic

The third quarter bores me to tears.  The fourth quarter, however, promises to be the most intriguing with Novak Djokovic bookending the draw.  For Djokovic, a wrist injury threatened to wreak havoc with his 2014 clay court season.  After skipping Madrid, Djokovic returned in Rome and won four consecutive three setters to calm any fears about his injury.  This included another win over Rafa, his fourth consecutive victory over the Spaniard in another barnstorming Masters 1000 finale match.  The Serb has a tricky draw in Paris; he opens against Joao Sousa and could meet Jeremy Chardy in the second round, who beat Federer in Rome.  The first seed he is projected to meet is Marin Cilic; perhaps not as big a threat on clay, but still a player to be wary off.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Jerzy Janowicz are also looming in this section.  Tsonga had match points over Djokovic a couple of years back and always seems to raise his level at Roland Garros.  Janowicz may be hopeful of a first win since Rotterdam in February when he plays Victor Estrella Burgos, who is making his debut performance at a Grand Slam at the age of 33.

Three of 2014’s in-form players, Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori and Alexandr Dolgopolov all find themselves in a stacked eighth of the draw.  Raonic has drawn the very promising Aussie junior, Nick Kyrgios, who recently had a practice week with Federer.  Raonic has shown stark improvements in his game this year, but is yet to make a Grand Slam quarter-final.  His second round opponent would be Lukas Rosol or Jiri Vesely, both solid players on the clay.  Vesely has won 11 ATP main draw matches this year and made the semi-finals in Dusseldorf, his best performance at an ATP event.  Gilles Simon is also in Raonic’s section, which based on the last two weeks, which has seen him push Nadal in Rome and make the semi-finals of Nice, wouldn’t be straightforward.

Nishikori had a fabulous pair of weeks in Barcelona and Madrid, but once again, his body let him down.  He was beating Nadal fair and square, but was forced to retire from the final.  He has had two weeks off since then.  He will play Martin Klizan in the first round, who had a return to form in Munich a few weeks ago where he won the title as a qualifier.  The Japanese star also has Alexandr Dolgopolov in his mini-section.  The Dolgo’s form has dipped during the clay court season, but wins over Nadal and Ferrer this year demonstrate he is a quality player.  I’ve gone for Nishikori to make the quarters, but I am concerned about how he will cope in the best of five set matches.  If he can bring the form he displayed in Madrid, he is going to be a huge threat in this draw.

1st Round Predictions: Raonic d. Kyrgios in 5 sets, Vesely d. Rosol in 5 sets, Gonzalez d. Russell in 3 sets, Dolgopolov d. Ramos in 4 sets, Dodig d. Granollers in 5 sets, Nishikori d. Klizan in 4 sets, Tsonga d. Roger-Vasselin in 4 sets, Janowicz d. Estrella Burgos in 4 sets, Cilic d. Andujar in 5 sets, Chardy d. Gimeno-Traver in 4 sets and Djokovic d. Sousa in 3 sets

Moo’s Quarter-Final Prediction: Nishikori v Djokovic

Moo’s Final Prediction: Djokovic d. Nadal

I’ve gone for Djokovic over Nadal and it’s a prediction I have relative confidence in.  I believe Novak can beat Rafa in a best of five set match and there is nothing more to really elaborate on that!  From the quarter-finals, the mens draw could be captivating.  It just make take a while to get going…