The final regular ATP tournament of the year takes place in Paris next week.  The draw has already seen Rafael Nadal and Marin Cilic both pull out.  There were rumours about Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, but both are in the draw.  Two years ago, the Paris draw turned into a hilarious mess.  In 2013, the draw held up well.  This year, I think it will be somewhere in between! Note that the top 16 players all have byes into the second round.  Here’s my preview…

Novak Djokovic is the number one seed in Paris and takes his place at the top of the drawsheet.  Djokovic became a father in the week after his wife, Jelena Ristic gave birth to a baby boy named Stefan.  I’m surprised to see Djokovic in the tournament and i’m wondering how far he is going to go and whether blooming developments in his personal life will affect his performance here in Paris.  His first match of the week will be against either Philipp Kohlschreiber or Edouard Roger-Vasselin.  His quarter is reasonably tough; in the third round, Djokovic is seeded to meet John Isner, who has had some notable wins against the Serb.  Isner defeated Djokovic at Indian Wells (7-6(7) 3-6 7-6(5) in 2012) and Cincy (7-6(5) 3-6 7-5).  Their last three matches have all gone the distance.  Gael Monfils, who hasn’t played since the middle of September, is also lurking.  Monfils always does well at this tournament, having reached back-to-back finals in 2009 and 2010.

Djokovic is seeded to meet Andy Murray in the quarter-finals… i’m not quite sure why the draw gods hate us so much, but they obviously do.  The thought of another Djokovic-Murray match makes me sad.  Murray has been on a brilliant run of form, winning Shenzhen (ATP 250), Vienna (ATP 250), and Valencia (ATP 500) in his pursuit to qualify for the World Tour Finals in London.  His job is pretty much done after defeating David Ferrer for the second consecutive week.  That’s another match that I have blacklisted after spending a couple of hours befuddled in front of the TV whilst watching Murray-Ferrer last week in Vienna.  Murray’s eighth features Grigor Dimitrov, who lost in a high quality quarter-final to  Roger Federer in Basel.  Dimitrov has won both matches he has played against Murray this year and could take advantage of this draw after Murray played an EXHAUSTING final in Valencia.

David Ferrer and Kei Nishikori are the highest seeds in the second quarter.  Much like 2013, Ferrer has led a punishing fall schedule.  Paris will be Ferrer’s sixth tournament in a row.  At least this year, he’s had a reason with his position in the World Tour Finals still up for grabs.  His first round match will be against Lukas Rosol or David Goffin.  Goffin reached the final in Basel to extend his run of wins to 16 before it was snapped by Roger Federer.  This included a top ten win over Milos Raonic in the quarter-finals.  Goffin’s rise to relevance feels very similar to that of Simona Halep’s rise in 2013.  If Goffin has anything left in the tank, he is more than capable of knocking out Ferrer.

Nishikori is playing his first match since Shanghai where he lost in straight sets to Jack Sock.  After reaching the final at the US Open, Nishikori responded magnificently with two titles in Kuala Lumpur (ATP 250) and Tokyo (ATP 500).  In the second round he faces off against the winner of one of the more intriguing first round matches between Tommy Robredo and Vasek Pospisil; Pospisil has been disappointing since reaching the final of DC, compiling a 7-8 W-L record.  However, Robredo fought for over three hours in the longest ATP final of the year, eventually missing out on five match points against Andy Murray in Valencia.  If Tommy can still stand up after that match, then he’s a hero.

Stan Wawrinka is the highest seed in the third quarter; the Australian Open champion hasn’t won a ATP tour match since the US Open.  His draw features plenty of pitfalls.  In the second round he will play Dom Thiem or Alexandr Dolgopolov; both players have beaten him this year.  Wawrinka is in dire need of matches before the World Tour Finals at the O2.  If Stan falls at the first hurdle again, then Tomas Berdych should be the one to take advantage.  The Czech player opens against a Frenchman, either Pierre-Hugues Herbert or Adrian Mannarino.  Berdych is seeded to meet Feliciano Lopez in the third round.

The final quarter of the draw features Roger Federer, who is having a marvellous year.  Federer won his fifth title of the year in Basel, easing past David Goffin, 6-2 6-2 in a quick final that lasted less than an hour.  In the second round, he could meet Jeremy Chardy, who reached the semi-finals of Valencia and also notched up a win over Federer in Rome earlier this year.  Federer is in the same quarter as Milos Raonic, who has been disappointing in the last couple of weeks.  It is likely that Raonic’s recent run of form won’t be enough for him to qualify for the World Tour Finals *EDIT: It’s actually not that impossible if Ferrer goes out early, but he is depending on other results.  His first match of the week will be against Jack Sock or Pablo Andujar.

Selected 1st Round Predictions: Kohlschreiber d. Roger-Vasselin in 2 tight sets, Benneteau d. Lu in 2 sets, Goffin d. Rosol  in 2 tight sets, Verdasco d. Young in 3 tight sets, Youzhny d. Giraldo in 3 sets, Thiem d. Dolgopolov in 3 sets, Gasquet d. Istomin in 2 tight sets and Chardy d. De Schepper in 2 tight sets

Quarter-Final Predictions: Djokovic v Dimitrov, Ferrer v Nishikori, Berdych v Anderson and Raonic v Federer

Final Prediction: Federer d. Nishikori