Petra Kvitova lost her first match in Cincy to Elina Svitolina, 6-2 7-6(2).  I thought Petra played well in Montreal, but this was a disappointing performance.  The conditions don’t suit her game, but I expected Petra to come through.  Svitolina was solid although her attempts (X2) at trying to serve out the match were painful as she missed practically every first serve.  It was a good win for Svitolina, the first top ten victory of her career, but I think most players would have beaten Petra today! There are some fantastic third round matches in the WTA Cincy draw. This is the first of two parts previewing Thursday’s WTA matches.  

1. Caroline Wozniacki v Angelique Kerber (WTA Cincy, R3)

I’m bummed that Caroline Wozniacki and Angelique Kerber will meet so early in Cincy, but this should be a superb match.  Caroline Wozniacki has had two routine wins over Magdalena Rybarikova and Zhang Shuai, losing five games in each match.  The data could still be classed as inconclusive, but Caroline has become much more reliable since Eastbourne.  I watched the first set of her match with Rybarikova and she was playing great, just like in Montreal.  Kerber won her first match in Cincy against Ekaterina Makarova, 6-4 6-1.  It was a tight first set, but the scoreline implies that Makarova may have tired in the second set after deep runs in both DC and Montreal.

Kerber leads the head-to-head 5-3; their last four matches have all been fun to watch.  From the magnificent moonball-dominated match in Indian Wells which Wozniacki won, 2-6 6-4 7-5 to their fast paced and high quality encounter in Tokyo last year which Kerber won, 6-4 7-6(5), all of their matches have had something different and always been entertaining.  It was Kerber who won their most recent match at Eastbourne, coming from a set down to win, 3-6 7-6(3) 6-3.  This match is likely to come down to a few points here or there.  I won’t be surprised whoever comes through, but I believe Wozniacki has the very slight edge.

Prediction: Wozniacki d. Kerber in 3 tight sets

2. Lucie Safarova v Simona Halep (WTA Cincy, R3)

It’s been another solid week for Lucie Safarova, who followed up her win over Venus Williams with a straight sets victory over Zarina Diyas, 6-4 6-2.  In the first round, Lucie led *5-2 in the third set and thought she had won until a challenge by Venus ruled her winner had gone long.  She got broken, stumbled a little, but closed out the match at the second time of asking.  A year ago, i’m quite certain Lucie would have lost this match.  Stay tuned next week for a feature post on Lucie.  She will now play Simona Halep, who had a comfortable win in her first match for a month against Kirsten Flipkens, 6-4 6-2.  Safarova and Halep last met in Indian Wells and it was a really excellent match, particularly the first set.  Halep won, 6-2 4-6 6-4 in one hour and 57 minutes.  Both players have been revelations this year, particularly Simona.  Lucie is playing well though and I think that win over Venus will have given her a great deal of confidence.  I think this will be close…

Prediction: Halep d. Safarova in 3 sets

3. Maria Sharapova v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (WTA Cincy, R3)

Maria Sharapova navigated her way past the first challenge of the week with a three set victory over Madison Keys, 6-1 3-6 6-3.  Keys played a really great second set, but is still not quite there in terms of challenging the very best players.  Her game is magic when she’s firing forehands and finding the court, but it’s still very erratic.  Sharapova started well and closed out the match convincingly.  She was not at her best throughout the match, making a large number of unforced errors.  In the third round, Sharapova faces another potentially tricky match against fellow Russian, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.  It’s been a brilliant week for Pavlyuchenkova, who has won two matches in straight sets (that’s epic for Pavs).  She defeated Dominika Cibulkova in the first round and then beat Karin Knapp, 6-1 6-3.  Pavlyuchenkova got broken serving for the match, but this was still a very routine victory.

I’ve always been a big fan of Pavlyuchenkova and I believe she is one of the best ball strikers on tour.  Her serve can let her down, as can her concentration, but she has had her fair share of big wins to prove that the talent is there.  I wish she could be a more consistent player, but i’m doubtful as to whether that will ever happen.  Pavlyuchenkova beat Sharapova earlier this year on her way to the title in Paris.  Sharapova gained revenge in Stuttgart with a straight sets victory.  Although Sharapova is my tip, I think Pavlyuchenkova is a very dangerous player for the top seeds and this should be a well contested match.

Prediction: Sharapova d. Pavlyuchenkova in 3 sets