This is going to be an exciting week for Moo’s Tennis Blog. More details to follow later! The men’s draw in Cincy actually kicks off on Sunday with two main draw matches, the first of them starting at 9pm UK time. I really don’t understand why they would schedule two matches today, but hey ho. The qualifying draws for both men and women in Cincy have been great and the second and final qualifying round will conclude today. Here’s my thoughts about the ATP main draw for Cincy, which is missing Rafael Nadal again…
Note: This post has been updated to take account of the qualifiers.
First Quarter: N.Djokovic (1) v D.Ferrer (6)
Novak Djokovic will be looking to rebound after a surprising 6-2 6-2 loss to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the third round of Toronto. To see Djokovic lose so early and with such a one-sided scoreline was certainly a surprise, but I have absolutely no doubt he is still the clear favourite to win in Cincy. His first match of the week will be against Gilles Simon or Bernard Tomic. It’s not a particularly challenging draw for Novak with Tommy Robredo his first projected seed in the third round. In the quarters, Djokovic is seeded to meet David Ferrer. The Spaniard had an absolute cakewalk of a draw in Toronto, but still needed three sets to get past Michael Russell and Ivan Dodig, before taking a set off Roger Federer in the quarter-finals. Ferrer’s first match in Cincy will be tougher than either of his first two opponents in Canada as he will take on the winner of a first rounder between Jeremy Chardy or Philipp Kohlschreiber.
Ferrer could meet Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the third round. Out of nowhere, Jo has come into some form with consecutive wins over Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Grigor Dimitrov. Tsonga won Toronto in a majestic week and he was only taken to three sets on one occasion so I don’t think he will be that fatigued. Confidence is also a huge weapon and with the likes of Mikhail Youzhny, Andreas Seppi and Santiago Giraldo in his section, all players who have been struggling of late, Tsonga should have enough in the tank to reach the third round and challenge Ferrer. Am I jumping on the Tsonga comeback bandwagon? Why, of course! If you remember, at the start of the year I predicted Tsonga would make the Australian Open final. It’s just taken a lot longer for him to get over the knee injury and find his confidence again. IF we did get a Djokovic v Tsonga match again, I would expect a different result.
1st Round Predictions: Tomic d. Simon in 2 sets, Querrey d. Falla in 3 sets, Robredo d. Sock in 3 sets, Tsonga d. Youzhny in 2 tight sets, Seppi d. Giraldo in 3 sets and Chardy d. Kohlschreiber in 2 tight sets
Moo’s Quarter-Final Prediction: Djokovic v Tsonga
Second Quarter: S.Wawrinka (3) v G.Dimitrov (7)
For the second week in a row, a quarter-final between Stan Wawrinka and Grigor Dimitrov is on the cards. In Toronto, Wawrinka fell early and in Cincy, there’s a good chance this match-up won’t happen again with a fair few dangerous players lurking. Wawrinka will open against Ivo Karlovic or Benjamin Becker. The huge dude should have beaten Richard Gasquet in Canada last week. If Stan gets through that, he will play one of Marcel Granollers, Fernando Verdasco, Feliciano Lopez or Marin Cilic. Lopez reached the semi-finals in Toronto, meanwhile Cilic pushed Federer to a third set in the third round. I really like Cilic’s chances of beating a tired Lopez in round one, getting past Verdasco and then taking out Stan. I watched some of Stan’s match with Kevin Anderson in Toronto and I really wasn’t impressed with his form. Stan destroyed Cilic the last time they played in Monte-Carlo, 6-0 6-2, but tennis is a funny game.
Dimitrov reached the semi-finals in Toronto, but he didn’t play that well in any of this matches. He was taken to three sets against Tommy Robredo after nearly blowing a set and a break lead and was very fortunate that Kevin Anderson completely collapsed in their quarter-final match. In the semi-finals, he was defeated in straight sets by Tsonga. In Cincy, Dimitrov will open against Jerzy Janowicz or a qualifier. His likely third round opponent is Richard Gasquet. The Frenchman notched up two good wins in Canada over Vasek Pospisil and Ivo Karlovic, but was then forced to pull out with an abdominal injury. It’s a pretty favourable draw for Dimitrov; he certainly could make the quarters, but I don’t think he will go any further than that.
1st Round Predictions: Karlovic d. Becker in 2 tiebreak sets, Verdasco d. Granollers in 2 tight sets, Cilic d. Lopez in 3 sets, Gasquet d. Benneteau in 2 sets, Ward d. Garcia-Lopez in 3 sets and Janowicz d. Gabashvili in 3 sets
Moo’s Quarter-Final Prediction: Cilic v Dimitrov
Third Quarter: M.Raonic (5) v T.Berdych (4)
The third quarter-final is another repeat match-up from Toronto and another one that never materialised. Milos Raonic fought hard in Toronto, but eventually fell in the quarter-finals to Feliciano Lopez. He’s become a really solid player and should be better equipped in Cincy after a few days of rest following his exit on Friday. His first match of the week will be against Robby Ginepri or Dominic Thiem. Ernests Gulbis is also present in this section. He hasn’t done anything of note since reaching the semi-finals of the French Open and has a 0-2 H2H record against his first round opponent, Ivan Dodig.
Tomas Berdych‘s section is one of the weakest eighth’s of the draw. The Czech world number five has had a disappointing series of results, stretching back to a quarter-final exit at the French Open. He fell in the third round at both DC and Toronto and really needs a good result in Cincy ahead of the US Open. His first match will be against Yen-Hsun Lu or Denis Istomin, both respectable players and potential giant killers if Berdych continues to wobble.
1st Round Predictions: Thiem d. Ginepri in 2 sets, Johnson d. Paire in 3 sets, Gulbis d. Dodig in 3 sets, Fognini d. Roger-Vasselin in 2 sets, Melzer d. Hewitt in 3 sets and Istomin d. Lu in 3 sets
Moo’s Quarter-Final Prediction: Raonic v Berdych
Fourth Quarter: A.Murray (8) v R.Federer (2)
Andy Murray showed promise in Toronto with a confident display against Nick Kyrgios. However, he fell to the eventual finalist, Tsonga in the quarter-finals having led in the third set of their quarter-final 3-0. The Brit has been working hard in Miami and I believe this will be a good tournament for him. He will play Joao Sousa or Chase Buchanan in the second round. John Isner is a potential third round opponent. Isner won Atlanta, but then suffered early exits in both DC and Toronto. His first match is against Kevin Anderson, who played a horrible match against Grigor Dimitrov, wasting two match points in their quarter-final in Toronto. Ignoring the end of that match, Anderson played some great tennis in Canada, but it will be a tough match to get over.
Roger Federer reached the final in Toronto as his excellent year continues. A tough draw coupled with a tiring run in Canada mean that it’s going to be hard for Federer to have a repeat result in Cincy. His first match of the week will be against Vasek Pospisil or Radek Stepanek. Pospisil has found his feet again in singles, reaching the final of DC, meanwhile Stepanek has his moments and took a set off Federer earlier this year in Dubai. Roberto Bautista Agut is Federer’s first projected seed. The Spaniard lost early in Toronto and may have to beat Martin Klizan and Gael Monfils, back-to-back, both erratic but highly capable players. I’m expecting a Federer v Murray quarter with Andy prevailing. Rog has been great this year, but at 33 years old, playing consistent tennis in two consecutive weeks is going to be a considerable challenge.
1st Round Predictons: Sousa d. Buchanan in 2 sets, Matosevic d. Mahut in 2 sets, Isner d. Anderson in 2 tight sets, Bautista Agut d. Klizan in 3 sets, Monfils d. Delbonis in 2 sets and Pospisil d. Stepanek in 3 sets
Moo’s Quarter-Final Prediction: Murray v Federer
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