Madrid 2nd Round Preview: Murray v Almagro, Radwanska v Kuznetsova and more

The full line-up for the AEGON International was released today with Agnieszka Radwanska, Petra Kvitova, Jelena Jankovic, Angelique Kerber, Sara Errani, Flavia Pennetta, Caroline Wozniacki and Sloane Stephens all committing to the event.  I’ll be going for a couple of days this year and I am also planning to get tickets for the Rally4Bally exhibition event on the Sunday.  I also found out last week that I got Wimbledon tickets in my work’s Tennis Club ballot via the LTA. I got plum tickets for Magic Monday, which also happens to be on my Birthday.  Just a little bit excited…

Polls: My mens prediction took a huge hit today when Roger Federer pulled out of the tournament.  He announced tonight that Mirka has given birth to another set of twins, Leo and Lenny.  Crazy!  It’s too late to change anything unfortunately.  In the winners poll, 32% went for Nadal, closely followed by Federer (31%) and Wawrinka (24%).  For the women, 25% went for Serena, 24% for Radwanska and 20% for Sharapova.

1. Andy Murray v Nicolas Almagro

Almagro

Nicolas Almagro

Wednesday’s evening session will kick off with Andy Murray‘s first clay court match of 2014 on the ATP tour.  Of course, Murray has played two Davis Cup ties on clay, of which in the latter, he went down in straight sets to Fabio Fognini.  It was a result that saw many pundits announce Fognini as a top five player on clay.  After his recent amateur dramatics, I hope that they will be retracting those statements.  He’s great on the clay, when everything is going swimmingly, but he will never be able to string it all together at a big tournament with his attitude. Murray opens against Nicolas Almagro, which is a really tough match-up.  Almagro endured a rather epic first round match, needing 11 match points to take care of Andrey Golubev, 6-3 6-7(9) 7-6(4) in two hours and 31 minutes.

Almagro had a huge result over Rafael Nadal last week in Barcelona.  Consistency-wise though, Almagro’s results haven’t been great this year.  He remains a very potent threat on clay and with Murray renowned as a slow starter, the Spaniard will fancy his chances of causing an upset.  Murray leads the head-to-head by three wins to one.  Almagro’s sole win came on clay at Roland Garros in 2008.  Personally, I’d love to see Murray get the win in this one.  I think he can do much better on clay than recent years have suggested.  If he’s fully fit and mind fully engaged, he has a good enough draw to go deep this week.  However, I think Almagro will be fully into this one, having played a significant amount of matches on clay in the last couple of weeks.

Prediction: Almagro d. Murray in 2 tight sets

2. Svetlana Kuznetsova v Agnieszka Radwanska

Radwanska

Agnieszka Radwanska

The Madrid draw gods have not been kind to Agnieszka Radwanska this year.  After drawing Eugenie Bouchard in the first round, she now gets the impressively in-form, Svetlana Kuznetsova in the second round.  Radwanska defeated Bouchard, 7-6(3) 6-2 in a comfortable opening match.  I must admit I was a little disappointed with Bouchard.  She had her chances, didn’t take them and made some rash errors as she overpushed against Radwanska’s brick wall defence.  Radwanska is certainly beatable on clay and this loss showed Bouchard still has quite a long way to go.  Kuznetsova took out Alize Cornet in three sets, 6-3 4-6 6-1.  Although this match wasn’t streamed, I got the sense it was too much, too early for Cornet after an injury lay-off.  My prediction of her to reach the quarters was poor.  I think she will be more of a threat in Rome with another week’s rest and a good draw.

Radwanska and Kuznetsova have played a whopping 13 times on the WTA tour.  Kuznetsova has won 10 of those encounters including the last 6 matches.  The most recent of those matches came at the 2012 French Open when Kuznetsova crushed Aga, 6-1 6-2.  They have had some very tight matches in the past, but overall, this is a ropey head-to-head for Radwanska.  Also going against her is that Kuznetsova is a terrific clay court player.  On any other surface, I would favour Aga.  This is clay though…

Prediction: Kuznetsova d. Radwanska in 3 sets

3. Jelena Jankovic v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

Pavlyuchenkova

A.Pavlyuchenkova

I’m looking forward to Madrid’s evening session on Wednesday with JJ  and Pavs, Jelena Jankovic and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova concluding the session.  Jankovic has had a consistent year.  She has enjoyed wins over Angelique Kerber, Petra Kvitova, Caroline Wozniacki and Flavia Pennetta.  If there was a criticism, she hasn’t quite strung it all together at one tournament with just one final appearance in Bogota where she lost out to Caroline Garcia.  Her first match of the week saw her produce a solid performance in beating Elina Svitolina, 6-4 6-3.  Since winning Paris, Pavlyuchenkova has gone a little cold.  She overcame a potentially sticky opener against Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor, needing three sets to come through in her Madrid opener.

Pavluychenkova actually leads the head-to-head and won the pair’s first three matches.  JJ has restored some parity with victories in Fed Cup (2012) and Beijing (2013).  That match in last year’s fall was an odd one; Pavs raced into a 6-1 first set lead, but lost the second and then the third with a bagel.  Pavlyuchenkova’s best surface is clay.  She has done well at this event in the past and often gives the best players a run for their money.  Three sets, but JJ should prevail.

Prediction: Jankovic d. Pavlyuchenkova in 3 sets

4. Ernests Gulbis v Alexandr Dolgopolov

For the second time this year, Ernests Gulbis and Alexandr Dolgopolov will meet in the European clay court season.  You wouldn’t have known that Dolgopolov took to the court today.  His win over Fognini was mostly memorable for the Italian’s antics.  It is worth noting this was Dolgopolov’s fifth consecutive win over Fognini on the ATP tour.  He won on Tuesday, 7-5 4-6 6-3 in two hours and five minutes.  Gulbis also needed three sets to condemn Jerzy Janowicz to another early loss.  Dolgopolov won their most recent match in Monte-Carlo and handily, 6-2 6-4.  Since that win, Dolgopolov went onto lose in MC and then his first match in Barcelona too.  His win over Fognini though was a good one and technically, an upset.  Dolgopolov will be the favourite having won over Ernie quite recently.  Tennis is a funny game though.  Different country, different court.  I’m going Gulbis.

Prediction: Gulbis d. Dolgopolov in 3 sets

WTA Madrid 2nd Round Predictions

Serena Williams d. Peng Shuai in 2 sets

Carla Suarez Navarro d. Alison Riske in 2 sets

Simona Halep d. Lara Arruabarrena in 2 sets

Sabine Lisicki d. Irina-Camelia Begu in 3 sets

Caroline Wozniacki d. Roberta Vinci in 3 sets

ATP Madrid 2nd Round Predictions

Rafael Nadal d. Juan Monaco in 2 sets

Jarkko Nieminen d. Igor Sijsling in 3 sets

Grigor Dimitrov d. Marius Copil in 2 sets

Tomas Berdych d. Kevin Anderson in 2 tight sets *Poor Kevin, I’d love to see Kevin break his duck against the Bird*

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga d. Santiago Giraldo in 3 sets

Feliciano Lopez d. Mikhail Youzhny in 3 sets

John Isner d. Marinko Matosevic in 2 tight sets

Marin Cilic d. Paul-Henri Mathieu in 2 sets

One thought on “Madrid 2nd Round Preview: Murray v Almagro, Radwanska v Kuznetsova and more

  1. You’re absolutely right about Fognini in big tournaments. In Masters events he’s played 43 main draws and has only made it to the quarter finals once! (h/t to Nick Lester)

    Good read, thanks 🙂

    Like

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