This is the first occasion in quite sometime that I have been more intrigued by the men’s draw at a joint event.  This clay court season has been wildly unpredictable for the men and I like it.  Rafael Nadal has been struggling for form.  Novak Djokovic has looked great, but has been troubled by a wrist injury and pulled out of the tournament.  Stanislas Wawrinka is peaking, Roger Federer has been consistently strong and we finally have some new fresh blood coming through in the likes of Kei Nishikori and Grigor Dimitrov.  I believe this is the first ever Masters 1000 draw where I am not going for either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal to make the final.  I’m already regretting my boldness… please do read on.

NOTE – This preview has been edited to take account of Novak Djokovic’s late withdrawal from the event

FIRST QUARTER: R.Nadal (1) v T.Berdych (6)

Grigor Dimitrov

Two tournaments into this European  clay court season and Rafael Nadal is yet to win a title.  Nadal has been totally dominant on this surface that two quarter-final losses in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona has made everything look up and take note that the world number one is struggling for one reason or another.  Nadal lost in Monte-Carlo to David Ferrer and in Barcelona to Nicolas Almagro.  Nadal’s loss to Ferrer was a first in 14 matches on clay and the defeat to Almagro was a first ever in ten match-ups.  In Madrid, Nadal’s route through the draw looks routine up to the quarter-finals.  His first match of the week will be against Jurgen Melzer or Juan Monaco and the first seed he could meet is Tommy Haas.  I do think Nadal will turn it around and at this moment in time, I would fancy him to win Rome.  For Madrid though, I just have a feeling he’s not going to bring it together.

Tomas Berdych rounds out this quarter and will play his first match against his pigeon, Kevin Anderson or Radek Stepanek.  Poor old Kevin has lost ten consecutive matches against the Berd.  In fact, Anderson has lost both his clay court matches in 2014 so he may be spared another defeat to Berdych.  The other seed in this section is Grigor Dimitrov, who is having a fine year.  The Bulgarian world number 14 (I raised my eyebrows at this when I realised) has won two titles in 2014, winning Bucharest on the clay last weekend.  He didn’t necessarily beat anyone of real note, but winning matches you are expected to win is almost as impressive.  Dimitrov could meet Berdych in the third round, who he leads in the head-to-head 2-0.  It was last year where Dimitrov had his biggest result to date, beating Djokovic in a terrific three setter in Madrid .  One year on, I believe Dimitrov will have an even more fruitful run in Madrid…

1st Round Predictions: Monaco d. Melzer in 3 sets, Haase d. Nieminen in 3 sets, Dimitrov d. Carreno Busta in 2 tight sets, Granollers d. Copil in 3 sets, and Stepanek d. Anderson in 2 sets

Moo’s Quarter-Final Prediction: Nadal v Dimitrov

SECOND QUARTER: R.Federer (4) v A.Murray (7)

Andy Murray

As we move into the fifth month of the year, Roger Federer has won 28 singles matches this year.  Leading the way in 2014, I don’t think anyone could have anticipated that Federer would have had such a consistent year.  Personally, I think taking a significant break off in the Winter and not playing those exhibition events in Brazil, which he did in the 2012 off-season, has really set him up well for this year.  Federer’s first match in Madrid will be against Benoit Paire or Gilles Simon, which is a first round match that should deliver a spectacular French feast of drama.

Federer could meet Tommy Robredo in the third round.  The last time they played each other, Robredo stunned Federer in straight sets at the US Open, which was probably Fed’s most shocking loss last year.  If the pair did meet again, another Robredo win would be pretty mindblowing.  I do like Robredo on clay, but in this tournament, I would favour another Spaniard, either Fernando Verdasco or Roberto Bautista-Agut, to make the third round.

Andy Murray is playing his first ATP clay court event of the year and he could face a really awkward opener against Nicolas Almagro.  Murray is well known as a slow starter and having not played any clay court events yet, he is going to be very vulnerable.  His loss in Davis Cup action to Fabio Fognini will certainly give Almagro heart in that potential match, assuming he wins his opener.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is projected to meet Murray in the third round.  Tsonga played some great stuff in the beginning of his quarter-final match in Monte-Carlo with Roger Federer, before falling to a 6-2 6-7 1-6 loss.  The way he sunk without trace in the decider demonstrated there is still a significant lack of confidence.  If Murray falls early, this could be a good opportunity for JWT to get some points on his ranking, some wins and hopefully some confidence.

1st Round Predictions: Paire d. Simon in 3 sets, Verdasco d. Seppi in 3 sets and Tsonga d. Roger-Vasselin in 2 sets

Moo’s Quarter-Final Prediction: Federer v Tsonga

THIRD QUARTER: M.Raonic (7) v S.Wawrinka (3)

Milos Raonic

I keep having to remind myself that Stanislas Wawrinka won the Australian Open, Stanislas Wawrinka won Monte-Carlo and Stanislas Wawrinka is a relevant threat on the ATP tour.  I think it’s absolutely great for the ATP tour and when Stanley is on song, he is a real delight to watch.  Out of the top four seeds, Wawrinka, who is defending finalist points, has drawn a really favourable draw.  His first match will be against a qualifier or Dmitry Tursunov.  The Russian player lost 6-0 6-0 last week in Oeiras to the Portugese wildcard, Rui Machado.  There were reports he had an injury, but still, why play on?  The first seed Stan could meet is Mikhail Youzhny, who has had a really disappointing year.  Youzhny has won just three matches this year and I think he may have been affected by injuries and / or illness.

Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori are seeded to go head-to-head in what would be an enticing third round match.  Nishikori won Barcelona last weekend, storming his way to the title with straight set wins over Marin Cilic, Ernests Gulbis and Santiago Giraldo.  It was a tremendous run and if he can stay healthy, Nishikori will break the top ten very soon.  Nishikori opens against Ivan Dodig, who isn’t having a good year, meanwhile Raonic will take on Lukas Rosol or Jeremy Chardy in the second round.  I hope both make it to the third round…

1st Round Predictions: Rosol d. Chardy in 2 tight sets, Garcia-Lopez d. Andujar in 3 sets, Nishikori d. Dodig in 2 sets and Delbonis d. Lopez in 3 sets

Moo’s Quarter-Final Prediction: Nishikori v Wawrinka

FOURTH QUARTER: D.Ferrer (5) v N.Djokovic (2)

Marin Cilic

David Ferrer has been really inconsistent this year.  He’s had some good wins, beating Nadal on clay and winning a title in Buenos Aires, but has suffered some strange and surprising losses through the course of the first four months.  In 2014, Ferrer has lost to Yen-Hsun Lu, Daniel Brands and Teymuraz Gabashvili most recently in Barcelona.  Ferrer has a neat draw in Madrid and will play his first match of the week against Albert Ramos or Nicolas Mahut.  In the third round, Ferrer is projected to meet John Isner, who hasn’t played since a second round loss to Dustin Brown on the clay courts of Houston.

Novak Djokovic was set to play in Madrid, but just after the first ATP main draw match kicked off, the Serb pulled of the tournament.  In my opinion, it was a really smart move.  Djokovic has not played well in Madrid the past two years and after getting booed in his second round defeat last year, I doubt he holds the tournament in high regards.  Roland Garros is the big prize.

Djokovic’s exit from the draw opens up the section for Marin Cilic, who plays Joao Sousa in the first round.  This area of the draw also features a quartet of Fabio Fognini, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Ernests Gulbis and Jerzy Janowicz.  Fognini is into the final of Munich, which will be played on Sunday.  He has never beaten Dolgopolov in four previous ATP tour matches, going 0-8 in sets.  Janowicz has been in terrible form, losing his last seven matches.  I like Gulbis’s chances of coming through that quartet.

1st Round Predictions: Ramos d. Mahut in 2 sets, Dolgopolov d. Fognini in 3 sets, Gulbis d. Janowicz in 2 tight sets and Cilic d. Sousa in 2 sets

Moo’s Quarter-Final Prediction: Ferrer v Cilic

Moo’s Final Prediction: Federer d. Wawrinka

Hmm. I’ve gone for Federer, but I really don’t know how this week will pan out! Both Nadal and Djokovic have question marks next to their name.  Federer has won Madrid before and I think the quicker clay courts will suit him along with Wawrinka, who has the best draw of the four players mentioned.  Dimitrov is my dark horse and I also wouldn’t be surprised Nishikori to go deep too.  Often when I go for some surprises in a draw, it ends up going entirely with the seeding.  We shall see…