Finals day is all set in Indian Wells with a classic showdown between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer to bring the curtain down on the 2014 BNP Paribas Open. Who you got?
Novak Djokovic
In their second match-up of the 2014 season, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic will go head-to-head for the first Masters 1000 title of the year. Both have made their way into the final with distinctly different routes through the draw. Federer has yet to drop a set in his five matches and was in awesome form in the semi-finals on Saturday. He swept past Alexandr Dolgopolov, 6-3 6-1 in just 61 minutes. Federer dealt with the wind much better than Dolgopolov, who made far too many unforced errors. Dolgo’s spirit was broken after a long game, the best one of the match, in the middle of the second set which saw Federer earn the double break.
On the other side of the draw, Djokovic has rather laboured into the final with three of his five matches going the distance. He lost sets to Alejandro Gonzalez (6-1 3-6 6-1, R3), Marin Cilic (1-6 6-2 6-3, R4) and John Isner (7-5 6-7 6-1, SF). His match with Isner was not pretty as he TWICE failed to serve out the match in the second set. Isner went on to play a majestic tiebreak and rather miraculously steal the second set. Djokovic came through comfortably in the decider as Isner was hampered by a leg injury, but it was a concerning performance from Djokovic. He appears to have lost his edge in the crucial moments. Saying all this, Djokovic is still in the final!
Djokovic had won his last three matches against Federer before they met in Dubai two weeks ago. Djokovic led by a set, but Federer stormed back impressively to win their semi-final match, 3-6 6-3 6-2. Without doubt, Federer has played the better tennis this week and is also the more confident of the two having now worked up a nine match winning streak. It all seems a bit too clear cut with everything pointing in the favour of Federer. Their last three matches have gone the distance and I expect the same from this final. It feels foolish to write off Djokovic, but at this moment in time, I am starting to question his nerve and ability to pull through in the really key moments of these big matches. This is a big match and I think Federer goes in as the favourite…
Moo's Tennis Blog 
Fed’s definitely deserves the favourite tag I believe. His tennis is getting better and better, but Djoker will provide a stern test, even if he hasn’t been playing well this tournament.
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Agree, Djokovic should not be written off. I am almost wary of going for Federer because everything seems almost too perfect with his form, his recent win over Djokovic and the Serb playing poorly this week by his very high standards.
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Agree though I don’t have a guess on the # of sets. I’m having a hard time understanding, other than the rankings, why Roger is an +165 underdog in this. One other thing, though I understand not playing the final on a Sunday night, I wish that the championship match could be played at night and not under a bright and beating sun.
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I’m surprised that Federer is not the favourite with the bookmakers, but that will come down to Djokovic’s record over Federer in the last couple of years, which despite losing their last match-up, has been good. Federer hasn’t been reliable over the last year or so although that is obviously starting to change in 2014. Personally I am glad the final is in the day because here in the UK, I should be able to watch at least some of it!
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Yes, I tend to have recency bias when trying to figure out who is going to win these things. Glad you can watch it, your time! I am on the Central Coast of Calif and we’ve been having a hot spell, which is in the desert too. I just prefer seeing tennis when the players aren’t being drained by the heat or dealing with the sun glare. Fortunately, these tournaments are global and the times always shifting!
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Nice. I do agree with you about not playing in the heat of day, but I am happy about the timing for purely selfish reasons!
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